Die Marshmallow-Experimente von Walter Mischel
Messen sie wirklich Selbstkontrolle?



Lange Zeit galten die berühmten "Marshmallow-Studien" von Walter Mischel als prototypische Experimente zur Messung der Selbstkontrolle. Überraschenderweise ließen sich jedoch in manchen Untersuchungen lediglich geringe Korrelationen zu anderen Maßen der Selbstkontrolle beobachten.
In den letzten Jahren wurden daher zunehmend Alternativhypothesen getestet. So könnte eine lange Wartezeit im Marshmallow-Experiment auch ein Ausdruck höherer Intelligenz oder größerem Vertrauen sein (Duckworth et al. 2012; Kidd et al. 2013).
Aber lässt sich mit diesen Forschungsansätzen auch die erstaunliche Vorhersagekraft des Marshmallow-Tests erklären?

Keywords:
Marshmallow-Test - Marshmallow-Experiment - Delay of Gratification - Belohnungsaufschub - Selbstkontrolle - Intelligenz - soziale Kompetenzen -Durchschnittsnoten - Frustrationstoleranz - prädiktive Validität - Duckworth -Replikation - Vertrauen  

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Besprochene Studien:

 

- Münzwurf: bei Zahl verlierst du 100 euro. Bei Kopf gewinnst du 150 Euro. Würdest du an so einer Wette teilnehmen? Eine Absage ist im Grunde irrational...
- Wenn die Einsätze steigen (1000 Verlust vs 1700 Gewinn) riskieren wir noch weniger... das macht allerdings Sinn. Totalverlust wäre katastrophal..

- verwöhnte Kinder/ verwöhntes Volk; niemand will auf Privilegien verzichten -> Stress mit den Kindern; Politiker, die Steuererhöhungen fordern (Die Grünen 2013) werden abgestraft... -> immer mehr Schulden...
- loss aversion in der Lehrermotivierung: diskutiert im englischen wiki-artikel zu loss aversion
 

Florack, A. & Zoabi, H. (2003). Risikoverhalten bei Aktiengeschäften. Wenn Anleger nachdenklich werden. Zeitschrift für Sozialpsychologie, 34(2), 65-78.


 

Boyce CJ1, Wood AM, Banks J, Clark AE, Brown GD. (2013). Money, well-being, and loss aversion: does an income loss have a greater effect on well-being than an equivalent income gain? Psychol Sci. 2013 Dec;24(12):2557-62. doi: 10.1177/0956797613496436. Epub 2013 Oct 14.

Kahneman, D.; Knetsch, J.; Thaler, R. (1990). "Experimental Test of the endowment effect and the Coase Theorem". Journal of Political Economy 98 (6): 1325–1348. doi:10.1086/261737. JSTOR 2937761.

Sokol-Hessner, P, Camerer, CF, Phelps, EA (2013) Emotion Regulation Reduces Loss Aversion and Decreases Amygdala Responses to Losses, SCAN, 8, p341-350 

Sokol-Hessner, P, Hsu, M, Curley, NG, Delgado, MR, Camerer, CF, Phelps, EA (2009) Thinking Like A Trader Reduces Individuals' Loss Aversion, PNAS, 106(13), p5035-5040

 Novemsky, N., & Kahneman, D. (2005). The boundaries of loss aversion. Journal of Marketing  Research, 42, 119-128.

Beggan JK (1994). The  preference for  g ain  f rames in   consumer  decision  m aking.  Journal of  Applied Social Psychology, 24 (16), 1407- 1427.

 Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1984). "Choices, Values, and Frames". American Psychologist 39 (4): 341–350. doi:10.1037/0003-066x.39.4.341

Krueger,  Alan B.  2001.  "Supply  and  Demand:  An  Economist  Goes  to  the  Super  Bowl." Milken  Institute  Review:  A  Journal of  Economic  Policy.  3:2,  pp.  22-29.

Kermer, D. A.; Driver-Linn, E.; Wilson, T. D.; Gilbert, D. T. (2006). "Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error". Psychological Science 17 (8): 649–653. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01760.x

Dawes, J. (2004). "Price Changes and Defection Levels in a Subscription-type Market: Can an Estimation Model Really Predict Defection Levels?". Journal of Services Marketing 18 (1): 35–44. doi:10.1108/08876040410520690

Carmon, Z., & Ariely, D. (2000). Focusing on the forgone: Why value  can  appear  so  different  to  buyers  and  sellers. Journal  of  Consumer Research, 27, 360–370.

Ert, E.; Erev, I. (2008). "The rejection of attractive gambles, loss aversion, and the lemon avoidance heuristic". Journal of Economic Psychology 29 (5): 715–723. doi:10.1016/j.joep.2007.06.003

Erev, I.; Ert, E.; Yechiam, E. (2008). "Loss aversion, diminishing sensitivity, and the effect of experience on repeated decisions". Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 21 (5): 575–597. doi:10.1002/bdm.602

Yechiam, E.; Telpaz, A. (2013). "Losses Induce Consistency in Risk Taking Even Without Loss Aversion". Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 26 (1): 31–40. doi:10.1002/bdm.758

Harinck, F.; Van Dijk, E.; Van Beest, I.; Mersmann, P. (2007). "When gains loom larger than losses: Reversed loss aversion for small amounts of money". Psychological Science 18 (12): 1099–1105. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2007.02031.x

Fryer et al., "Enhancing the efficacy of teacher incentives through loss aversion", "Harvard University", 2012

 

Prädiktive Validität der Marshmallow-Experimente:

Delay of Gratification_Studies





Text_Link Duckworth AL, Tsukayama E, Kirby TA. (2013). Is it really self-control? Examining the predictive power of the delay of gratification task. Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2013 Jul;39(7):843-55. doi: 10.1177/0146167213482589. Epub 2013 Apr 12.

Duckworth_Self-Control_Delay of Gratification




Text_Link McGuire, J.T., Kable, J.W. (2013). Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification. Psychol Rev. 2013 Apr;120(2):395-410. doi: 10.1037/a0031910. Epub 2013 Mar 4.

- insgesamt 646 Versuchspersonen

Marshmellow_Mischel_McGuire_Kable
Basierend auf Daten von: McGuire, J.T., Kable, J.W. (2013). Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification. Psychol Rev. 2013 Apr;120(2):395-410. doi: 10.1037/a0031910. Epub 2013 Mar 4.


 

Text_Link Michaelson, L., de la Vega, A., Chatham, C.H. and Munakata, Y. (2013). Delaying gratification depends on social trust. Front. Psychol. 4:355. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00355

Experiment 1 (78 Versuchspersonen)

- die Teilnehmer erhielten Beschreibungen von 3 unterschiedlichen Personen
a) Vertrauenswürdig
b) Neutral
c) Nicht Vertrauenswürdig

Dann: "Wenn dir Person A (vertrauenswürdig) 40$ jetzt oder 65$ in 70 Tagen anbieten würde, wofür würdest du dich entscheiden?"


Ergebnisse:

Delay of Gratification_social trust
Michaelson L, de la Vega A, Chatham CH and Munakata Y (2013) Delaying gratification depends on social trust. Front. Psychol. 4:355. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00355
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in other forums, provided the original authors and source are credited and subject to any copyright notices concerning any third-party graphics etc.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Experiment 2
(138 Versuchspersonen)


- drei unterschiedliche Gruppen:
a) vertrauenswürdiger Verhandlungspartner
b) neutraler Verhandlungspartner
c) wenig vertrauenswürdiger Verhandlungspartner

Diesmal waren den Beschreibungen auch Bilder beigefügt: 

Delay of Gratification_trustworthy
Michaelson L, de la Vega A, Chatham CH and Munakata Y (2013) Delaying gratification depends on social trust. Front. Psychol. 4:355. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00355
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in other forums, provided the original authors and source are credited and subject to any copyright notices concerning any third-party graphics etc.

Ergebnisse:

Marshmellow experiment_trust
Michaelson L, de la Vega A, Chatham CH and Munakata Y (2013) Delaying gratification depends on social trust. Front. Psychol. 4:355. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00355
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in other forums, provided the original authors and source are credited and subject to any copyright notices concerning any third-party graphics etc.




Text_Link Kidd, C., Palmeri, H., & Aslin, R.N. (2013). Rational snacking: Young children's decision-making on the marshmallow task. Cognition, 26, 109-114.

- Versuchspersonen: 28 Kinder (Alter ca. 4-6 Jahre)
- 2 Gruppen:
a) verlässlicher Versuchsleiter
b) kein Verlass auf den Versuchsleiter ("I'm sorry, but I made a mistake...")

Ergebnisse:

Kidd_environmental reliability_Marshmellow
Basierend auf: Kidd, C., Palmeri, H., & Aslin, R.N. (2013). Rational snacking: Young children's decision-making on the marshmallow task. Cognition, 26, 109-114.

 
Hier wird das Experiment der Universität Rochester vorgestellt:





Zum Nachlesen und Vertiefen:




 

 

 

 

Schlaf und Intelligenz_GedächtnisLiteratur:

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Chen, M. Keith, Venkat Lakshminarayanan, and Laurie R. Santos. 2006. “How Basic Are Behavioral  Biases? Evidence from Capuchin Monkey Trading Behavior.” Journal of Political Economy114  (3): 517–37.

Dawes, J. (2004). "Price Changes and Defection Levels in a Subscription-type Market: Can an Estimation Model Really Predict Defection Levels?". Journal of Services Marketing 18 (1): 35–44. doi:10.1108/08876040410520690

Ert, E.; Erev, I. (2008). "The rejection of attractive gambles, loss aversion, and the lemon avoidance heuristic". Journal of Economic Psychology 29 (5): 715–723. doi:10.1016/j.joep.2007.06.003

Erev, I.; Ert, E.; Yechiam, E. (2008). "Loss aversion, diminishing sensitivity, and the effect of experience on repeated decisions". Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 21 (5): 575–597. doi:10.1002/bdm.602

Fryer et al., "Enhancing the efficacy of teacher incentives through loss aversion", "Harvard University", 2012

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